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Year-on-year RTP delta — how the 2025 ranking drifted into the 2026 STAS edition
ByTJHJ
August 14, 2025Vol. 2025
An RTP drift analysis across 214 indexed titles — what moved up, what moved down, and why the 2026 S...
Executive Summary
An RTP drift analysis across 214 indexed titles — what moved up, what moved down, and why the 2026 STAS comprehensive ranking shuffled Jili, PG Soft and Pragmatic Play positions.
Year-on-year, the STAS catalogue drifted in predictable and unpredictable ways. Most Jili titles held RTP within ±0.10 percentage points of the 2025 bench — unusually stable for a provider that ships frequent feature updates. PG Soft's high-variance titles (Wild Bandito, Treasures of Aztec) drifted slightly downward into the 2026 bench. Pragmatic Play's tumble catalogue held steady at 96.48 to 96.52%. The drift map below walks each provider tier the way the comprehensive STAS 2026 Philippines ranking actually moves between annual editions.
Jili stability — the smallest YoY drift in the catalogue
Super Ace moved from 96.98% (2025) to 97.02% (2026) — well within measurement noise on a 90-day rolling observation window. Money Coming held flat at 96.52%. Mega Ace drifted from 96.50% to 96.45%, a 0.05 point shift driven by a small bonus-frequency tightening in the November 2025 build. Boxing King moved 0.02 points downward to 96.78%. Across the full Jili top tier the median YoY drift is 0.04 percentage points absolute — the tightest provider-level stability in the comprehensive 2026 ranking.
Operationally that stability matters more than the absolute number. Filipino players who build a session strategy around a Jili top-tier title can carry the same bankroll model from 2025 into 2026 without recalibrating. Operators integrated through the Jili corridor can carry the same payout-curve assumptions through the year-end bonus cycles without hitting unexpected deltas. The 0.04 point median drift confirms what STAS suspected at the September 2025 mid-cycle audit — Jili runs an unusually disciplined RTP regime for a provider in its volume bracket.
PG Soft — small downward drift on the high-variance shelf
The PG Soft top-shelf drifted slightly downward into the 2026 edition. Wild Bandito moved from 96.71% (2025) to 96.66% (2026). Treasures of Aztec drifted from 96.71% to 96.65%. Fortune Tiger held flat at 96.81%. Mahjong Ways 2 drifted upward from 96.91% to 96.95%, becoming the highest-RTP title in the entire 2026 STAS catalogue. The aggregate PG Soft top-shelf drift is 0.04 percentage points downward — a real but very small shift. The drivers were two: a free-spin retrigger probability tightened on Wild Bandito and Treasures of Aztec in the December 2025 build, and Mahjong Ways 2 gained a small bonus-cascade probability in the same patch wave.
Pragmatic Play — the steadiest tumble shelf in the ranking
Pragmatic Play's tumble catalogue (Sweet Bonanza, Sugar Rush, Gates of Olympus, Starlight Princess, Big Bass Splash) held steady at 96.48 to 96.52% across the YoY observation. No title moved more than 0.04 percentage points in either direction. This is the steadiest single shelf STAS tracks — the tumble mechanic is mathematically stable and Pragmatic Play does not patch the underlying probability tables across annual cycles. Filipino players running a tumble-shelf bankroll model can carry it forward unchanged.
Evolution live-dealer drift — the smallest absolute drift in the catalogue
Evolution live-dealer titles do not drift in the same way slot RTPs drift. The number bets are mathematically anchored. Crazy Time still pays the number-1 bet at 96.08% theoretical RTP and the bonus-round bets between 94.41% and 96.08% — identical to the 2025 bench. Lightning Roulette holds at 97.30%. Monopoly Live holds at 96.23%. Dragon Tiger holds at 96.27%. The only YoY change in the Evolution lineup is a minor host-rotation expansion across the Tagalog shifts; the RNG and the wheel layouts remain unchanged.
Habanero, Hacksaw, Nolimit City, Microgaming — the challenger drift
Habanero's 888 Gold held at 96.62% observed. Mystic Fortune drifted upward 0.03 points to 96.62% as well. Hacksaw Gaming's Le Pharaoh and Wanted Dead or a Wild held flat at the 96.30% to 96.45% band. Nolimit City's Mental and Fire in the Hole xBomb held flat at 96.06% — Nolimit City is famously stable at the published RTP. Microgaming's Immortal Romance held at 96.86%. The challenger-tier providers showed the lowest drift in the catalogue overall, in part because they ship fewer mid-cycle patches.
Fa Chai and JDB — Silver-tier fishing drift
Fa Chai's Super Fishing held flat at 96.30%. JDB's Fishing God held flat at 96.32%. The fishing-game RTP is harder to read because the format mixes a base-bet ladder with a multiplier table; STAS reports the aggregate observed return across 90-day windows and both providers held within 0.04 percentage points of the 2025 bench.
Pros and cons of the YoY drift profile
Pros — overall catalogue-wide drift is well under the 0.20 percentage point threshold STAS uses to call a meaningful YoY change; Jili and Pragmatic shelves are stable enough to anchor a multi-year bankroll model; the highest-RTP title in the catalogue (Mahjong Ways 2) drifted upward not downward, which means the headline ceiling rose into 2026; live-dealer benches are mathematically anchored and did not drift at all on the number-bet leg.
Cons — PG Soft's slight downward drift on Wild Bandito and Treasures of Aztec will be noticed by players who run those titles as core anchors; the fishing-game RTP is harder to read year-on-year because the base-bet plus multiplier table is sensitive to a player's own staking pattern; some operator-side bonus-funding changes amplify or dampen the apparent drift, which means the player's experienced RTP may differ from the provider-published number.
FAQ
What does a 0.04 percentage point drift mean in practice?
It means the long-run expected return on a PHP 1,000 bankroll moves by less than PHP 1.00 — within measurement noise on a 90-day observation window. STAS does not call any drift under 0.20 percentage points a meaningful catalogue change.
Why did Mahjong Ways 2 drift upward?
The December 2025 patch wave gave the title a small bonus-cascade probability lift. The published RTP is now 96.95% — the highest in the entire 2026 STAS catalogue.
Did any title drift outside the noise band?
No. Every title in the comprehensive STAS catalogue held within ±0.10 percentage points of the 2025 bench. The catalogue-wide median drift is 0.04 absolute.
Are RTP figures provider-published or STAS-observed?
STAS reports observed RTPs measured across 90-day rolling windows on the operator integrations within scope. The numbers are then cross-checked against the provider-published RTPs and the test-lab certificates. Where the two disagree by more than 0.10 percentage points STAS investigates before publishing.
Can a player rely on the published RTP?
Over the long run yes — RTP is a long-run expectation, not a session prediction. Filipino players running short sessions will see substantial variance around the published number; the published RTP describes the catalogue, not the night.
Internal references
For the comprehensive ranking that this YoY delta supports see Best Online Casino Philippines 2026 STAS ranking. For the highest-RTP Editor's pick that drove the upward drift see Editor's pick — Mahjong Ways 2 (PG Soft) crowns the STAS observed-RTP chart. For the editorial discipline behind every audit window see the curator letter from STAS Editorial.
For independent context on Philippine gaming regulation, see the official PAGCOR licensee directory.
Try the STAS-ranked Philippines casino lineup
Registered Filipino residents aged 21 or older can play the full STAS-ranked Philippines casino lineup under PAGCOR-licensed PIGO operators at the STAS recommended destination. Play responsibly — set a session bankroll before you log in and stop when you hit it.
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End of Dispatch ? August 14, 2025
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